KEY TAKEAWAYS
A favorite is the side that the odds say is more likely to win. An underdog is the side that the odds say is less likely to win. A long shot is an underdog with a very small chance and a very large payout. Two more phrases often travel with them: even money, which pays a profit equal to the stake, and odds-on, which pays less than the stake.
Beginners hear these words constantly, in sports talk, at the racetrack, at the poker table and in casino conversations. They sound like opinions about who is good, but they describe the price. A favorite is not necessarily the better team, and an underdog is not necessarily weak. The words only report what the odds imply.
This guide explains each term, shows how a price reveals which is which, works through a hypothetical game with exact numbers, compares how the words appear across forms of gambling, clears up common misunderstandings and offers tips for using the terms. It is an overview for beginners and does not recommend any bet.
What Favorite, Underdog and Long Shot Mean
A favorite is the outcome the odds treat as most likely. In sports betting it is the team or player with the shorter price, meaning a bettor must risk more than they can win. In slang, a favorite is sometimes called “chalk.”
An underdog is the outcome the odds treat as less likely, so a winning bet pays more than the stake. If a team is called the underdog, the odds are saying it is expected to win less often than the other side. Wager101’s guide to odds versus probability explains how a price turns into a chance.
A long shot is an extreme underdog, an outcome with a low chance and a large payout. A winning ticket on a long shot can look exciting, but such wins are rare by design. Lottery tickets are the most familiar example, since the chance of winning is tiny.
Even money describes a price where profit equals stake. A $10 bet at even money returns $20 if it wins: the $10 stake plus $10 profit. In American odds it appears as +100, in decimal odds as 2.00 and in fractional odds as 1/1. Odds-on is the opposite of a long shot: a price shorter than even money, such as 1 to 2, where a $20 stake earns $10 profit.
How the Price Shows Which Is Which
The price is the clue. In American odds, a minus sign usually marks the favorite and a plus sign the underdog. A price of −150 means a bettor must stake $150 to win $100 in profit. A price of +130 means a $100 stake earns $130 in profit. Wager101’s overview of how sports betting works describes the formats in more detail.
Turning a price into a chance
The implied probability is the chance a price suggests. For a negative price, divide the number by itself plus 100. For a positive price, divide 100 by the number plus 100. So −150 implies 150 ÷ 250 = 60.00%, and +130 implies 100 ÷ 230 = 43.48%. A favorite has an implied chance above 50%, and an underdog has an implied chance below 50%.
Shorter and longer prices
People also talk about “short” and “long” odds. Short odds mean a more likely outcome with a smaller payout, and long odds mean a less likely outcome with a larger payout. A price of 20 to 1 is long. At 20 to 1, a $5 stake would earn $100 profit and return $105 in total, and the implied chance is 1 ÷ 21 = 4.76%. Wager101’s explanation of what 5 to 1 odds mean uses the same ratio idea.
The pick’em
When neither side is favored, the game is sometimes called a pick’em. A pick’em has no favorite and no underdog, so both sides carry similar prices, often near −110 each. That does not mean the game is a coin flip in reality, only that the sportsbook sees the sides as even.
A Simple Example: One Game, Two Prices
Suppose a hypothetical game has Team A at −150 and Team B at +130. Team A is the favorite and Team B is the underdog. A $15 bet on Team A wins $10 in profit, because $15 × 100 ÷ 150 = $10, and returns $25 in total. A $10 bet on Team B wins $13 in profit, because $10 × 130 ÷ 100 = $13, and returns $23 in total.
Now compare the implied chances. Team A implies 60.00% and Team B implies 43.48%. Together they add up to 103.48%, which is 3.48 percentage points above 100%. That extra amount is the sportsbook’s margin built into the prices, so the two chances add up to more than 100%. The prices are hypothetical, and real margins vary by sportsbook and by game.
The favorite’s price does not mean the favorite will win. If Team B wins, the bettor on Team A loses the whole $15 stake. In the long run, a bettor who always takes favorites or always takes underdogs pays the margin either way. No label of favorite or underdog changes the built-in cost, and the label never tells which side is the better bet.
The Same Words Across Forms of Gambling
These words appear outside sports betting too, and the table below compares where. It describes common uses, and details vary by game and by venue.
| Where | How the words show up | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Sports betting | Favorite and underdog are set by the price | −150 favorite, +130 underdog |
| Horse racing | The favorite is the horse with the shortest odds; long shots are common | A horse at 20 to 1 is a long shot |
| Roulette | Even-money bets pay 1 to 1; a single number is a long shot paying 35 to 1 | Red or black versus one number |
| Poker | Players call a hand a favorite or underdog by its chance to win at that moment | A hand that wins more than half the time |
| Lottery | Every ticket is a long shot | A tiny chance for a large prize |
Roulette shows the point well. On a European wheel with 37 pockets, a single number has a 1 in 37 chance, or 2.70%, yet pays 35 to 1 while the true odds are 36 to 1. An even-money bet on red wins 18 of 37 times, or 48.65%, but pays only 1 to 1. Even money does not mean a 50% chance, because the zero pocket tilts the result toward the house. Wager101’s article on the house edge covers this gap.
Common Beginner Misconceptions
“The favorite always wins.” A favorite is only more likely to win, not certain. At −150, the implied chance is 60%, so the price itself says the favorite loses about 40% of the time.
“Betting on underdogs is smarter because the payout is bigger.” A bigger payout reflects a smaller chance. The margin is built into both sides, so neither favorites nor underdogs are automatically better value.
“A long shot is due to hit.” Each event is independent of past results. A long shot has the same small chance every time, no matter how many have missed before.
“Odds-on means good odds.” The phrase describes a price shorter than even money. It means a likely outcome with a small payout, not a good deal.
Many of these confusions come from the language of luck. Wager101’s article on luck versus skill in gambling explains why short-term outcomes can seem to follow a pattern when they do not.
Using These Terms With Confidence
Start by translating each label into a price and a chance. When someone calls a team the favorite, ask what the price is, then convert it to an implied probability. That one step replaces opinion with arithmetic.
Next, remember what the words do not say. They do not say a side is good, strong, likely to win this particular game or a smart bet. They say what the odds imply. Wager101’s guide to reading a bet slip shows where these prices appear before a bet is confirmed.
Finally, keep every bet inside a budget. Excited talk about long shots can make a small chance feel bigger than it is. A budget set in advance keeps the cost of entertainment fixed, and if gambling stops feeling like entertainment, taking a break and seeking help are the right next steps.
Keep Learning the Language
With these terms understood, the next step is the wider vocabulary beginners hear. Gambling terms beginners hear groups common words by situation, and commonly confused gambling terms separates pairs that sound alike but mean different things.
Frequently Asked Questions
